Basic research to help the shipping industry predict shocks in global networks
A new research project at ITU investigates how complex networks respond to sudden and localised disruptions. The results may influence both fundamental research and the maritime sector.
Jonas JuulResearchdata sciencegrants
Written 26 March, 2026 18:15 by Theis Duelund Jensen
How does a network react when it is hit by a shock? Can we predict whether it will collapse or not? These are some of the questions Assistant Professor Jonas Juul from the IT University of Copenhagen aims to explore in a new project, Localized Bursty Network Growth, that combines fundamental network theory with practical challenges in maritime logistics systems. Juul works in data science and complex systems and leads the development of an entirely new statistical method.
When networks change in clusters
If we can show that networks are affected in ways previously unaccounted for, it could change how companies assess vulnerability and design their systems.
Jonas Juul, Assistant Professor, ITU
Within network research, it has often been assumed that changes arise either randomly across the network or around a few critical points. But according to Jonas Juul, these assumptions often fail to capture how real systems behave.
“We often see that changes in networks hit entire local areas at once – as when a storm closes several ports in the same region, forcing shipping traffic to be rerouted all at once,” he says. “Yet, we have not had statistical tools to measure precisely this type of abrupt, localised change.”
The new method is designed to identify and quantify exactly these dynamics. The first testing ground will be maritime networks, where weather conditions, conflicts and logistical shocks frequently disrupt shipping routes.
But the implications extend far beyond shipping. According to Jonas Juul, the same types of network dynamics are likely to be observed when young people start a new degree programme and rapidly form sets of new social ties, or when users on the internet flock to particular platforms.
A pilot project with far-reaching ambitions
Although the project is a pilot study, it may form the starting point for a larger research programme on network resilience. The first task is to determine whether maritime networks actually experience the localised shocks the researchers expect to find, and, subsequently, whether such shocks make the networks more or less vulnerable.
“If we can show that networks are affected in ways previously unaccounted for, it could change how companies assess vulnerability and design their systems,” says Jonas Juul. “This applies not only to shipping, but also to financial networks and other complex systems where a single ill-placed shock can ripple through the entire system.”
Although the work is rooted firmly in data science and basic research, the project is in close dialogue with industry. For a sector affected by everything from geopolitical conflict to extreme weather events, new insights into network dynamics could have major implications for route planning, risk management and the design of business-critical systems.
“It’s an interesting mixture of something highly theoretical and something that could become very applicable,” as Jonas Juul puts it. That is why he sees the pilot project as a potential stepping stone towards larger Nordic or international collaborations on network resilience.
The project is supported by The Danish Maritime Fund and Orient’s Fond, which among other things will finance a research position lasting one and a half years.
Theis Duelund Jensen, Press Officer, phone +45 2555 0447, email thej@itu.dk